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New Yorkers will find out the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, takes in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising comeback win, it could cement the party's existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd